New mathematical model for the correct prediction of the exchangeable blood volume during acute normovolemic hemodilution

Background: The blood volume that has to be exchanged for crystalloids and/or colloids during acute normovolemic hemodilution (ANH) in order to reach a preset target hemoglobin concentration (hb) is usually predicted by the Bourke and Smith formula developed in 1974. This formula systematically overestimates the ‘true’ exchangeable blood volume (EBV), a fact that may potentially endanger patients because the target hb will be missed and the normovolemic anemia might turn out to be more severe than a priori intended. Our objective was to develop a more accurate mathematical model of hemodilution kinetics and to validate this new model in animals and in patients undergoing ANH. Methods: Twenty‐two anesthetized beagle dogs and 18 patients under balanced anesthesia underwent isovolemic hemodilution with hydroxyethyl starch (HAES 6%, 200 000) to a target hb of 7 g dl−1 or 9 g dl−1, respectively. Exchangeable blood volume predicted by use of the different mathematical models was compared with the blood volume actually exchanged to meet the preset target hb. Results: Calculation of EBV by the Bourke and Smith formula (EBVB + S) systematically overestimated the volume actually exchanged (overestimation: dogs 15%, patients 20%), whereas our new iterative model predicted EBV (EBViterative) more reliably (overestimation: dogs 1%, patients 8%). In both cases EBVB + S differed significantly from the EBViterative. Conclusion: Exchangeable blood volume is predicted more accurately by the new iterative model than by the Bourke and Smith formula. The iterative model leads to an improvement in patient safety and provides a physiologically adequate basis for future studies investigating the efficacy of ANH in reducing allogenic blood transfusions.