The cumulative risk of AIDS at the CD4 lymphocyte count declines

A method is proposed for assessing the cumulative risk of various AIDS-defining conditions as the CD4 lymphocyte count declines in HIV-infected individuals. The method is analogous to survival analysis but is based on the CD4 lymphocyte count rather than on time. Thus, the level to which the CD4 lymphocyte count has declined, rather than the length of time since seroconversion, is considered as an individual's survival interval. The survival interval may be censored (due to lack of follow-up) or treated as an interval to failure (if the individual develops AIDS). The Kaplan-Meier (product-limit) estimates, of the proportion of individuals developing AIDS before reaching a given low CD4 lymphocyte count, may be useful for determining when prophylactic treatment should begin.