Preoperative prediction of postoperative pulmonary arteriolar resistance after surgical repair of complete atrioventricular canal defect

The natural history of patients with complete atrioventricular canal defect is one of unrelenting development of pulmonary vascular obstructive disease. Corrective surgery, which can be performed with low mortality during infancy, reduces the time that the pulmonary vascular bed is exposed to excessively high pressure and blood flow. In some patients, however, advanced vascular disease may already be established at operation. Surgical intervention in these patients may not prevent the progression of obliterative pulmonary vascular disease and may in time even result in right ventricular failure, since after the corrective operation there is no ventricular septal defect to shunt away the right ventricular pressure overload. This article outlines a numeric method for predicting pulmonary vascular resistance after surgical correction; the method is based on age and hemodynamic data available from preoperative cardiac catheterization. Retrospective analysis of preoperative and postoperative data from 20 patients produced a regression equation in which a linear combination of inverse pulmonary/systemic blood flow ratio and age at operation predicted pulmonary vascular resistance after operation, with a multiple correlation coefficient of 0.85. This newly discovered relationship may provide valuable insight into the probable outcome of surgical intervention in cases in which pulmonary vascular obstructive disease is suspected as significant.