Integration of the Ecological and Error Models of Overconfidence Using a Multiple-Trace Memory Model

A memory processes account of the calibration of probability judgments was examined. A multiple-trace memory model, Minerva-Decision Making (MDM; M. R. P. Dougherty, C. F. Gettys, & E. E. Ogden, 1999 ), used to integrate the ecological (Brunswikian) and the error (Thurstonian) models of overconfidence, is described. The model predicts that overconfidence should decrease both as a function of experience and as a function of encoding quality. Both increased experience and improved encoding quality result in lower variance in the output of the model, which in turn leads to improved calibration. Three experiments confirmed these predictions. Implications of MDM's account of overconfidence are discussed.