Analysis of Risk Factors of the Evolution of Myelofibrosis in Pre-Fibrotic Chronic Idiopathic Myelofibrosis: A retrospective study based on follow up biopsies of 70 patients by using the RECPAM method

The advanced, fibrotic phase of chronic idiopathic myelofibrosis (CIMF) is preceded by a pre-fibrotic stage. However, the factors which may influence or predict the development of myelofibrosis are not well established. Thus we investigated follow up biopsies of 70 patients with CIMF, diagnosed in stages of no or only scant fiber increase, for the development of myelofibrosis. The influence of histopathological (megakaryocytes, initial fiber content), clinical (age, gender, splenomegaly, chemotherapy) and hematological (Hb, leukocyte- and platelet count) parameters on the development of myelofibrosis was evaluated by using the univariate Log Rank method and the multivariate recursive partition and amalgamation (RECPAM) analysis. Surveying a mean observation period of 47 months we found a development of significant myelofibrosis in 30 of the 70 patients. In the univariate analysis, the development of myelofibrosis was associated with increased megakaryocytes, initial fiber content and age of the patient. In the RECPAM analysis, the patients with a high megakaryocytic count and older age showed the highest risk of developing myelofibrosis (mean 58.3 and 60.1 months). The group with the best prognosis comprised the patients under 60 years which have a low content of megakaryocytes (mean 137 months). We found that the development of myelofibrosis in CIMF was best predicted by an increase of megakaryocytes within the bone marrow, possibly reflecting the release of growth factors by these cells. The next important risk factor was the age of the patients.