Evaluation of ability of biochemical markers of bone turnover to predict a response to increased doses of HRT

Antiresorptive therapy is usually given in a fixed dose, and we hypothesized that some patients receiving standard doses of hormone replacement therapy (HRT) might benefit from a higher dose, particularly if their bone turnover decreases after increasing the dose of HRT. Eighty-eight women who had been receiving standard-dose (0.625 mg/day) conjugated equine estrogens (CEE) for at least one year were randomized to take either standard-dose (0.625 mg/day, n = 36) or high-dose (1.25 mg/day, n = 52) therapy. Subjects with a uterus were allowed to take either 10 mg of medroxyprogesterone cyclically or 5 mg daily, according to personal preference. Bone Mineral Density (BMD) and biochemical markers of bone turnover were followed for 2 years. Mean bone turnover decreased significantly (-4.1% to -19.1%) after 6 months of high-dose CEE. Decreases in serum BSAP (bone-specific alkaline phosphatase) and serum or urine NTX ( N-terminal telopeptide crosslink of type I collagen) on high-dose therapy were not predictive of an improvement in BMD, but a decrease in serum CrossLaps did predict an improvement in BMD. Mean change in BMD in subjects with a significant decrease in serum CrossLaps at the anteroposterior spine was 3.1% +/- 3.9% versus 1.2% +/- 2.9% for subjects with no significant change in CrossLaps, P < 0.02. There was, however, a wide range of changes in BMD in patients with or without a significant change in CTX on high-dose HRT, making it impossible to predict an improvement in BMD based on an individual's changes in turnover. Measuring of bone density and bone turnover with better precision might be more successful in guiding individual dosing of antiresorptive therapy.