A comparison of the Framingham and European society of cardiology coronary heart disease risk prediction models in the normative aging study

Background A number of prediction models have been developed in an attempt to accurately identify patients at increased risk of a first coronary heart disease event. We sought to determine the ten-year incidence of coronary heart disease events in a healthy cohort with measurable risk factors, and to compare these results with the predicted number of events by use of both the Framingham and European Society of Cardiology risk prediction models. Methods We compared the predicted and observed number of events in 5 risk categories in 1393 subjects aged 30 to 74 years who were enrolled in the Normative Aging Study. Results The risk prediction models reliably stratify populations with regards to relative risk of coronary heart disease events and there is reasonable agreement between the 2 models (weighted κ = 0.46, P