How well does applicant rank order predict subsequent performance during radiology residency?

Residency selection committees expend substantial time and resources on assessing the quality of residency applicants to derive an appropriate rank order for the National Residency Matching Program. The authors determined whether there is a relationship between the rank number or rank percentile of applicants selected for a residency training program and subsequent radiology residency performance. Records of radiology residents completing their residency between 1991 and 1998 were reviewed. Available rank numbers and rank percentiles for each resident were compared with subsequent performance, as assessed subjectively by 4th-year radiology rotation evaluation forms and retrospective recall of four senior faculty members and objectively by numerical and percentile scores on the written portion of the American Board of Radiology (ABR) examinations. Correlation coefficients were obtained for each comparison. Rank number and rank percentile were not significantly correlated with 4th-year resident rotation evaluations or ABR written examination scores or percentiles. A small correlation existed between rank order and retrospective evaluation of resident performance by the four senior faculty. Applicant rank number and rank percentile do not correlate with subsequent radiology residency performance as assessed on rotation evaluation forms or the ABR written examinations.