A Model of the Transmission and Control of Genital Herpes
Background: Mathematical modeling of herpes simplex virus type 2 transmission can provide insight into the behavior of the epidemic and the effects of control measures. Goal: To examine parameter sensitivity and assess control strategies. Study Design: The model simulates transmission in a young, se...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Sexually transmitted diseases 2000-08, Vol.27 (7), p.363-370 |
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| container_title | Sexually transmitted diseases |
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| creator | NEWTON, ELIZABETH A. C. KUDER, JOHN M. |
| description | Background: Mathematical modeling of herpes simplex virus type 2 transmission can provide insight into the behavior of the epidemic and the effects of control measures. Goal: To examine parameter sensitivity and assess control strategies. Study Design: The model simulates transmission in a young, sexually active, nonmonogamous population. The population is divided into compartments representing disease status (susceptible, exposed, primary infectious, asymptomatic, recurrent, vaccinated), and flows between compartments are described by differential equations. Results: With a base set of parameter values, the basic reproduction rate (R₀) is 1.79, indicating that ultimate prevalence in this population will be 44%. The course of the epidemic is most sensitive to changes in behavioral parameters (time nonmonogamous and partner-change rate) and to the probability of transmission during the asymptomatic stage. Conclusion: In the absence of behavior change, efforts to control the epidemic must focus on vaccine development and prevention of transmission during both symptomatic and asymptomatic phases. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1097/00007435-200008000-00001 |
| format | Article |
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C. ; KUDER, JOHN M.</creator><creatorcontrib>NEWTON, ELIZABETH A. C. ; KUDER, JOHN M.</creatorcontrib><description>Background: Mathematical modeling of herpes simplex virus type 2 transmission can provide insight into the behavior of the epidemic and the effects of control measures. Goal: To examine parameter sensitivity and assess control strategies. Study Design: The model simulates transmission in a young, sexually active, nonmonogamous population. The population is divided into compartments representing disease status (susceptible, exposed, primary infectious, asymptomatic, recurrent, vaccinated), and flows between compartments are described by differential equations. Results: With a base set of parameter values, the basic reproduction rate (R₀) is 1.79, indicating that ultimate prevalence in this population will be 44%. The course of the epidemic is most sensitive to changes in behavioral parameters (time nonmonogamous and partner-change rate) and to the probability of transmission during the asymptomatic stage. Conclusion: In the absence of behavior change, efforts to control the epidemic must focus on vaccine development and prevention of transmission during both symptomatic and asymptomatic phases.</description><identifier>ISSN: 0148-5717</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1537-4521</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1097/00007435-200008000-00001</identifier><identifier>PMID: 10949427</identifier><identifier>CODEN: STRDDM</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Hagerstown, MD: Lippincott Williams & Wilkins</publisher><subject>Biological and medical sciences ; Female ; Herpes Genitalis - epidemiology ; Herpes Genitalis - prevention & control ; Herpes Genitalis - transmission ; Herpes Genitalis - virology ; Herpes viruses ; Herpesvirus 2, Human - physiology ; Human viral diseases ; Humans ; Infectious diseases ; Male ; Mathematical models ; Mathematics ; Medical sciences ; Models, Biological ; Preventive medicine ; Sexually transmitted diseases ; STD ; Viral diseases ; Viral diseases of the genital and urinary system</subject><ispartof>Sexually transmitted diseases, 2000-08, Vol.27 (7), p.363-370</ispartof><rights>Copyright 2000 American Sexually Transmitted Diseases Association</rights><rights>2000 INIST-CNRS</rights><rights>Copyright Lippincott Williams & Wilkins Aug 2000</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><oa>free_for_read</oa><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c439t-e50988e8c69f74ac2e7088b7620b0d03a309586f5def3e050d3a8f04addb76393</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c439t-e50988e8c69f74ac2e7088b7620b0d03a309586f5def3e050d3a8f04addb76393</cites></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktopdf>$$Uhttps://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/44965361$$EPDF$$P50$$Gjstor$$H</linktopdf><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://www.jstor.org/stable/44965361$$EHTML$$P50$$Gjstor$$H</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>314,776,780,799,27901,27902,30976,57992,58225</link.rule.ids><backlink>$$Uhttp://pascal-francis.inist.fr/vibad/index.php?action=getRecordDetail&idt=1455538$$DView record in Pascal Francis$$Hfree_for_read</backlink><backlink>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/10949427$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed$$Hfree_for_read</backlink></links><search><creatorcontrib>NEWTON, ELIZABETH A. C.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>KUDER, JOHN M.</creatorcontrib><title>A Model of the Transmission and Control of Genital Herpes</title><title>Sexually transmitted diseases</title><addtitle>Sex Transm Dis</addtitle><description>Background: Mathematical modeling of herpes simplex virus type 2 transmission can provide insight into the behavior of the epidemic and the effects of control measures. Goal: To examine parameter sensitivity and assess control strategies. Study Design: The model simulates transmission in a young, sexually active, nonmonogamous population. The population is divided into compartments representing disease status (susceptible, exposed, primary infectious, asymptomatic, recurrent, vaccinated), and flows between compartments are described by differential equations. Results: With a base set of parameter values, the basic reproduction rate (R₀) is 1.79, indicating that ultimate prevalence in this population will be 44%. The course of the epidemic is most sensitive to changes in behavioral parameters (time nonmonogamous and partner-change rate) and to the probability of transmission during the asymptomatic stage. Conclusion: In the absence of behavior change, efforts to control the epidemic must focus on vaccine development and prevention of transmission during both symptomatic and asymptomatic phases.</description><subject>Biological and medical sciences</subject><subject>Female</subject><subject>Herpes Genitalis - epidemiology</subject><subject>Herpes Genitalis - prevention & control</subject><subject>Herpes Genitalis - transmission</subject><subject>Herpes Genitalis - virology</subject><subject>Herpes viruses</subject><subject>Herpesvirus 2, Human - physiology</subject><subject>Human viral diseases</subject><subject>Humans</subject><subject>Infectious diseases</subject><subject>Male</subject><subject>Mathematical models</subject><subject>Mathematics</subject><subject>Medical sciences</subject><subject>Models, Biological</subject><subject>Preventive medicine</subject><subject>Sexually transmitted diseases</subject><subject>STD</subject><subject>Viral diseases</subject><subject>Viral diseases of the genital and urinary system</subject><issn>0148-5717</issn><issn>1537-4521</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2000</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>EIF</sourceid><sourceid>7QJ</sourceid><recordid>eNpdkE1LAzEQhoMotlZ_grKIeFvN5yY5lqKtUPFSzyHdJLhlu6nJ7sF_b7ZbqxgYMpl58jLzApAh-ICg5I8wHU4Jy3GfiRR5n6ATMEaM8JwyjE7BGCIqcsYRH4GLGDewf0N0DkZJhEqK-RjIafbqja0z77L2w2aroJu4rWKsfJPpxmQz37TB7_tz21StrrOFDTsbL8GZ03W0V4d7At6fn1azRb58m7_Mpsu8pES2uWVQCmFFWUjHqS6x5VCINS8wXEMDiSZQMlE4ZqwjFjJoiBYOUm1MgogkE3A_6O6C_-xsbFUar7R1rRvru6jSelSyAiXw9h-48V1o0mwKY0w4wogmSAxQGXyMwTq1C9VWhy-FoOq9VT_eqqO3-1Kvf3PQ79Zba_58HMxMwN0B0LHUtUtWllX85ShjjIiEXQ_YJrY-HNuUyoKRtMc3uXeHkw</recordid><startdate>20000801</startdate><enddate>20000801</enddate><creator>NEWTON, ELIZABETH A. 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C. ; KUDER, JOHN M.</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c439t-e50988e8c69f74ac2e7088b7620b0d03a309586f5def3e050d3a8f04addb76393</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2000</creationdate><topic>Biological and medical sciences</topic><topic>Female</topic><topic>Herpes Genitalis - epidemiology</topic><topic>Herpes Genitalis - prevention & control</topic><topic>Herpes Genitalis - transmission</topic><topic>Herpes Genitalis - virology</topic><topic>Herpes viruses</topic><topic>Herpesvirus 2, Human - physiology</topic><topic>Human viral diseases</topic><topic>Humans</topic><topic>Infectious diseases</topic><topic>Male</topic><topic>Mathematical models</topic><topic>Mathematics</topic><topic>Medical sciences</topic><topic>Models, Biological</topic><topic>Preventive medicine</topic><topic>Sexually transmitted diseases</topic><topic>STD</topic><topic>Viral diseases</topic><topic>Viral diseases of the genital and urinary system</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>NEWTON, ELIZABETH A. C.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>KUDER, JOHN M.</creatorcontrib><collection>Pascal-Francis</collection><collection>Medline</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>MEDLINE (Ovid)</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>PubMed</collection><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>Applied Social Sciences Index & Abstracts (ASSIA)</collection><collection>Bacteriology Abstracts (Microbiology B)</collection><collection>Health and Safety Science Abstracts (Full archive)</collection><collection>Virology and AIDS Abstracts</collection><collection>Environmental Sciences and Pollution Management</collection><collection>AIDS and Cancer Research Abstracts</collection><collection>ProQuest Health & Medical Complete (Alumni)</collection><collection>Algology Mycology and Protozoology Abstracts (Microbiology C)</collection><collection>Nursing & Allied Health Premium</collection><collection>MEDLINE - Academic</collection><jtitle>Sexually transmitted diseases</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>NEWTON, ELIZABETH A. C.</au><au>KUDER, JOHN M.</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>A Model of the Transmission and Control of Genital Herpes</atitle><jtitle>Sexually transmitted diseases</jtitle><addtitle>Sex Transm Dis</addtitle><date>2000-08-01</date><risdate>2000</risdate><volume>27</volume><issue>7</issue><spage>363</spage><epage>370</epage><pages>363-370</pages><issn>0148-5717</issn><eissn>1537-4521</eissn><coden>STRDDM</coden><abstract>Background: Mathematical modeling of herpes simplex virus type 2 transmission can provide insight into the behavior of the epidemic and the effects of control measures. Goal: To examine parameter sensitivity and assess control strategies. Study Design: The model simulates transmission in a young, sexually active, nonmonogamous population. 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| ispartof | Sexually transmitted diseases, 2000-08, Vol.27 (7), p.363-370 |
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| source | Applied Social Sciences Index & Abstracts (ASSIA); Jstor Complete Legacy; MEDLINE; Journals@Ovid Complete |
| subjects | Biological and medical sciences Female Herpes Genitalis - epidemiology Herpes Genitalis - prevention & control Herpes Genitalis - transmission Herpes Genitalis - virology Herpes viruses Herpesvirus 2, Human - physiology Human viral diseases Humans Infectious diseases Male Mathematical models Mathematics Medical sciences Models, Biological Preventive medicine Sexually transmitted diseases STD Viral diseases Viral diseases of the genital and urinary system |
| title | A Model of the Transmission and Control of Genital Herpes |
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