A Model of the Transmission and Control of Genital Herpes

Background: Mathematical modeling of herpes simplex virus type 2 transmission can provide insight into the behavior of the epidemic and the effects of control measures. Goal: To examine parameter sensitivity and assess control strategies. Study Design: The model simulates transmission in a young, sexually active, nonmonogamous population. The population is divided into compartments representing disease status (susceptible, exposed, primary infectious, asymptomatic, recurrent, vaccinated), and flows between compartments are described by differential equations. Results: With a base set of parameter values, the basic reproduction rate (R₀) is 1.79, indicating that ultimate prevalence in this population will be 44%. The course of the epidemic is most sensitive to changes in behavioral parameters (time nonmonogamous and partner-change rate) and to the probability of transmission during the asymptomatic stage. Conclusion: In the absence of behavior change, efforts to control the epidemic must focus on vaccine development and prevention of transmission during both symptomatic and asymptomatic phases.