Three-year prospective validation of a pre-endoscopic risk stratification in patients with acute upper-gastrointestinal haemorrhage

OBJECTIVE To assess the accuracy of a risk stratification that is used at initial assessment to identify groups with increased risk of mortality and requirement for urgent treatment intervention. DESIGN Prospective assessment of risk stratification in consecutive patients with acute upper-gastrointestinal haemorrhage. METHODS Over a 3-year period, 1349 consecutive patients with acute upper-gastrointestinal haemorrhage presenting to a single teaching hospital were prospectively risk stratified before endoscopy and followed up for outcome. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Two-week, all-cause mortality, re-bleeding, and need for urgent treatment intervention. RESULTS Stratification within the high-risk group predicted a significant increased risk of 2-week, all-cause mortality (P < 0.001) when compared with intermediate- and low-risk patients (11.8%, 3% and 0%, respectively), re-bleeding (P < 0.001) (44.1%, 2.3% and 0%, respectively), and need for urgent treatment intervention (P < 0.001) (71%, 40.6% and 2.6%, respectively). CONCLUSIONS Over a 3-year period, medical staff at this institution have routinely used this risk stratification, which identifies groups of patients at high and low risk of mortality, re-bleeding and need for urgent treatment intervention following acute upper-gastrointestinal haemorrhage. Use of this risk stratification should allow targeting of more intensive treatment where it might be of most benefit. Those patients at lowest risk from outpatient management are also identified.