Factors associated with an increased risk of prevalent and incident grade III cervical intraepithelial neoplasia and invasive cervical cancer among women with Papanicolaou tests classified as grades I or II cervical intraepithelial neoplasia

Objective: Women with Papanicolaou tests classified as cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade I or II are treated conservatively in many countries. However, these women are at an increased risk of having underlying prevalent and incident grade III cervical intraepithelial neoplasia and invasive cancer. This study was undertaken to identify factors that could predict these clinically important disease states. Study Design: Five hundred women with Papanicolaou tests classified as persistent grade I or II cervical intraepithelial neoplasia underwent a repeat test, human papillomavirus testing with Hybrid Capture assay (Digene, Silver Spring, Md) and polymerase chain reaction, and colposcopy with histologic assessment. One hundred fifty-seven women with histologically proven grade I or II cervical intraepithelial neoplasia were monitored conservatively for a minimum of 9 months to assess predictors of incident grade III cervical intraepithelial neoplasia. Results: One hundred fifty-one women with prevalent grade III cervical intraepithelial neoplasia and 5 women with prevalent invasive cancer were identified at the first colposcopy. A repeated Papanicolaou test classified as higher than grade II cervical intraepithelial neoplasia and detection of oncogenic human papillomavirus types were significant predictors of underlying grade III cervical intraepithelial neoplasia and cancer in the multivariate analysis. Seventeen of 157 women (10.8%) with grade I or II cervical intraepithelial neoplasia progressed to grade III cervical intraepithelial neoplasia. Age >30 years and detection of oncogenic human papillomavirus were significantly correlated with progression in the multivariate analysis. No progression was observed in women who were negative for human papillomavirus. Conclusion: The high rate of underlying prevalent grade III cervical intraepithelial neoplasia and cancer found in our study (31.2%) indicates that conservative management of women with persistent grade I or II cervical intraepithelial neoplasia should be discouraged. Colposcopy with histologic assessment should be recommended as the standard of care. However, for women with histologically proven grade I or II cervical intraepithelial neoplasia, subsequent conservative management was safe in our study for those who were negative for human papillomavirus by type-specific polymerase chain reaction. (Am J Obstet Gynecol 2002;186:28-34.)