Modeling Complex Neutrophil Dynamics in the Grey Collie

We have developed a mathematical model for the peripheral regulation of neutrophil production mediated by granulocyte colony-stimulating factor. We have used that model to show that the pattern of neutrophil oscillations in nine grey collies is consistent with the hypothesis that cyclical neutropenia is due to an oscillatory stem cell input to the neutrophil regulatory system, and not due to autonomous oscillations in the peripheral neutrophil regulatory system. In the process of interfacing our model with the laboratory data, we have estimated parameters for the peripheral neutrophil control system consistent with higher than normal apoptotic cell loss within the recognizable neutrophil precursors. This is in agreement with other experimental data. Our estimated model parameters also predict that the peripheral neutrophil production system is globally stable in the grey collies we studied. This further supports our hypothesis that the origin of the oscillatory behavior in cyclical neutropenia is in the stem cell population, consistent with other clinical and experimental evidence.