Monitoring individual response to hormone replacement therapy with bone markers

Hormone replacement therapy (HRT) induces a rapid decrease in biochemical markers of bone turnover that correlate with a subsequent increase in bone mineral density (BMD). To determine the utility of bone markers in the management of postmenopausal women receiving HRT, we analyzed the relationship between changes in four markers (serum osteocalcin and bone alkaline phosphatase [BAP], serum and urinary C-telopeptide of type I collagen [CTX]) and changes in spine BMD in 569 women treated for 2 years with different doses of a matrix transdermal 17β-estradiol patch in two placebo-controlled trials. Using a logistic regression model, we found that both the percent change from baseline and the actual value of resorption markers at 3 and 6 months of treatment were predictive of BMD response at 2 years. Comparable results were obtained with formation markers at 6 months only. We determined the sensitivity, probably of positive BMD response, and corresponding cutoff value of markers at 3 and 6 months with a specificity set at a level of 0.90, so that