The foot-and-mouth disease risk posed by African buffalo within wildlife conservancies to the cattle industry of Zimbabwe

Quantification of the risk that African buffalo ( Syncerus caffer) (isolated within wildlife conservancies in Zimbabwe by a double fencing system) would infect cattle outside the conservancies with foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) virus was assessed by scenario-pathway analysis. Of the five scenarios considered, the greatest annual risk (1:5000) for cattle would be from antelope jumping over the outer perimeter fence of the conservancy and infecting cattle on the outside. The other transmission scenarios (including air-borne transmission) had a FMD risk that was low to very low. Risk management would include means to prevent the escape of antelope from the conservancies and restriction of cattle density in the proximity of the perimeter fence.