Predicting Cancer Progression in Patients With Stage T1 Bladder Carcinoma

A significant number of patients with stage T1 bladder carcinoma are at risk for cancer progression. We sought to identify factors associated with cancer progression in a series of patients with stage T1 bladder carcinoma treated with a contemporary therapeutic approach. The study population consisted of 83 consecutive patients in whom stage T1 bladder carcinoma was diagnosed at the Mayo Clinic between 1987 and 1992. All patients underwent transurethral resection of the bladder (TURB) and had histologic confirmation of the diagnosis. The mean age was 71 years (range, 47 to 94 years). The male-to-female ratio was 3.9:1. The mean length of follow-up was 5.2 years (range, 1 day to 10.4 years). The depth of lamina propria invasion in the TURB specimens was measured with an ocular micrometer. Cancer progression was defined as the development of muscle-invasive or more advanced stage carcinoma, distant metastasis, or death from bladder cancer. The overall 5- and 7-year progression-free survival rates were 82% and 80%, respectively. The depth of invasion in the TURB specimens was associated with cancer progression (hazards ratio, 1.6 for doubling of depth of invasion; 95% confidence interval, 1.03 to 2.4; P =.037). The 5-year progression-free survival rate for patients with depth of invasion of >/= 1.5 mm was 67%, compared with 93% for those with depth of invasion of less than 1.5 mm (P =.009). No other variable, including age, sex, tobacco use, alcohol use, the presence of carcinoma-in-situ, histologic grade, lymphocytic infiltration, or muscularis mucosae invasion, was associated with cancer progression. The depth of invasion in the TURB specimens, measured with a micrometer, is predictive of cancer progression in patients with stage T1 bladder carcinoma.