Estimation of the false negative fraction of a diagnostic kit through Bayesian regression model averaging

In modelling we usually endeavour to find a single ‘best’ model that explains the relationship between independent and dependent variables. Selection of a single model fails to take into account the prior uncertainty in the model space. The Bayesian model averaging (BMA) approach tackles this problem by considering the set of all possible models. We apply BMA approach to the estimation of the false negative fraction (FNF) in a particular case of a two‐stage multiple screening test for bowel cancer. We find that after taking model uncertainty into consideration the estimate of the FNF obtained is largely dependent on the covariance structure of the priors. Results obtained when the Zellner g‐prior for the prior variance is used is largely influenced by the magnitude of g. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.