A Predictive Model for Massive Transfusion in Combat Casualty Patients

BACKGROUND:Massive transfusion (MT) is associated with increased morbidity and mortality in severely injured patients. Early and aggressive use of blood products in these patients may correct coagulopathy, control bleeding, and improve outcomes. However, rapid identification of patients at risk for MT has been difficult. We postulated that evaluation of clinical variables routinely assessed upon admission would allow identification of these patients for earlier, more effective intervention. METHODS:A retrospective cohort study was conducted at a single combat support hospital to identify risk factors for MT in patients with traumatic injuries. Demographic, diagnostic, and laboratory variables obtained upon admission were evaluated. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed. An algorithm was formulated, validated with an independent dataset and a simple scoring system was devised. RESULTS:Three thousand four hundred forty-two patient records were reviewed. At least one unit of blood was transfused to 680 patients at the combat support hospital. Exclusion criteria included age less than 18 years, transfer from another medical facility, designation as a security internee, or incomplete data fields. The final number of patients was 302, of whom 26.5% (80 of 302) received a MT. Patients with MT had higher mortality (29 vs. 7% [p < 0.001]), and an increased Injury Severity Score (25 ± 11.1 vs. 18 ± 16.2 [p < 0.001]). Four independent risk factors for MT were identifiedheart rate >105 bpm, systolic blood pressure