Analysis of risk factors for development of atrial fibrillation early after cardiac valvular surgery

Atrial fibrillation (AF) commonly develops after cardiac valvular surgery. The objective of this study was to identify risk factors for postoperative AF following valvular surgery. A cohort of 915 consecutive adult patients undergoing isolated valvular surgery with preoperative sinus rhythm was analyzed. Univariate and independent multivariate risk factors for postoperative AF were determined. A second cohort of 305 patients with the same inclusion criteria was used to validate the multivariate predictors. Patients studied had a mean age of 56.1 ± 14.7 years, 57.9% were men, 79.6% had a normal left ventricular ejection fraction, and their mean left atrial size was 46.2 ± 9.3 mm. The incidence of postoperative AF was 36.7%. Independent predictors of postoperative AF included: advanced age (odds ratio [OR] 1.506 per decade, 95% confidence interval, [CI] 1.35 to 1.68, p = 0.0001); mitral stenosis (OR 2.066, CI 1.21 to 3.52, p = 0.0077); left atrial enlargement (OR 1.468, CI 1.07 to 2.01, p = 0.0165); use of systemic hypothermia (OR 0.572, CI 0.422 to 0.776, p = 0.0003); and a history of cardiac surgery (OR 0.676, CI 0.465 to 0.981, p = 0.0393). Among these variables, advanced age, mitral stenosis, and left atrial enlargement were confirmed as independent risk factors in the validation cohort.