Accuracy of side-chain prediction upon near-native protein backbones generated by ab initio folding methods

The ab initio folding problem can be divided into two sequential tasks of approximately equal computational complexity: the generation of native‐like backbone folds and the positioning of side chains upon these backbones. The prediction of side‐chain conformation in this context is challenging, because at best only the near‐native global fold of the protein is known. To test the effect of displacements in the protein backbones on side‐chain prediction for folds generated ab initio, sets of near‐native backbones (≤ 4 Å Cα RMS error) for four small proteins were generated by two methods. The steric environment surrounding each residue was probed by placing the side chains in the native conformation on each of these decoys, followed by torsion‐space optimization to remove steric clashes on a rigid backbone. We observe that on average 40% of the χ1 angles were displaced by 40° or more, effectively setting the limits in accuracy for side‐chain modeling under these conditions. Three different algorithms were subsequently used for prediction of side‐chain conformation. The average prediction accuracy for the three methods was remarkably similar: 49% to 51% of the χ1 angles were predicted correctly overall (33% to 36% of the χ1+2 angles). Interestingly, when the inter‐side‐chain interactions were disregarded, the mean accuracy increased. A consensus approach is described, in which side‐chain conformations are defined based on the most frequently predicted χ angles for a given method upon each set of near‐native backbones. We find that consensus modeling, which de facto includes backbone flexibility, improves side‐chain prediction: χ1 accuracy improved to 51–54% (36–42% of χ1+2). Implications of a consensus method for ab initio protein structure prediction are discussed. Proteins 33:204–217, 1998. © 1998 Wiley‐Liss, Inc.