What Predicts Change in Marital Interaction Over Time? A Study of Alternative Models

This is a report on what predicts the deterioration of affective marital interaction over a 4‐year period. Four models were compared for their ability to predict Time‐2 dysfunctional marital interaction (a set of reliable predictors of marital dissolution). These four models were: (1) baseline physiology at Time‐1; (2) interaction physiology at Time‐1; (3) a balance model based on the ratio of positivity to negativity at Time‐1; and, (4) cognitions about the relationship operationalized from our coding of the Oral History Interview. All four models predicted Time‐2 dysfunctional marital interaction. All four models were also able to predict change, operationalized as predicting Time‐2 interaction, controlling for Time‐1 interaction, that is, using a covariance regression analysis. The most powerful model in predicting change was the balance ratio model.