Preoperative CYFRA 21-1 and CEA as prognostic factors in patients with stage I non-small cell lung cancer: external validation of a prognostic score

To validate the prognostic value of preoperative levels of CYFRA 21-1, CEA and the corresponding tumor marker index (TMI) in patients with stage I non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Two hundred forty stage I NSCLC patients (80 in pT1 and 160 in pT2; 100 squamous cell carcinomas, 91 adenocarcinomas, 32 large-cell carcinomas, 17 with other histologies; 171 males and 69 females) who had complete resection (R0) between 1986 and 2004 were included in the analysis. CYFRA 21-1 and CEA were measured using the Elecsys system (Roche) and AxSym-System (Abbott), respectively. Univariate analysis was performed using the Kaplan-Meier method to identify potential associations between survival and age, gender, CYFRA 21-1, CEA and TMI. Overall 3- and 5-year survival rates were 74 and 64%, respectively. Male gender (p = 0.0009) and age >70 years (p = 0.0041) were associated with a worse prognosis; there were no differences between pT1 and pT2 nor between histological subtypes. Three-year survival was 72% for CYFRA 21-1 levels >3.3 ng/ml versus 75% for levels 6.7 ng/ml versus 75% for CEA 0.05). Corresponding 5-year survival rates were near 64% both for patients with CYFRA 21-1 values above and below the cutoff (3.3 ng/ml), and 49 and 66% for patients with values above and below the CEA cutoff (6.7 ng/ml), respectively (both p values >0.05). Overall survival did not vary in the different TMI risk groups (p = 0.73). In this cohort of early-stage NSCLC patients, male gender and age >70 years were associated with a worse outcome, but elevated levels of CEA and CYFRA 21-1, and TMI risk were not.