CHILDBEARING IN CRISIS: WAR, MIGRATION AND FERTILITY IN ANGOLA

This study examines the short- and long-term effects of war-induced and war-unrelated migration on fertility outcomes using data from two peri-urban municipalities of Greater Luanda in Angola. In the short term, results from multi-level discrete-time logistic regression models indicate that net of other factors, war-unrelated migration is associated with a lower probability of birth than war-induced migration in a given year. Similar results are obtained when the effects of migration are lagged by a year. At the same time, the effects of war-triggered migration do not differ significantly from those of not migrating in a given year but are statistically significant when the effects of migration are lagged by a year. In the long term, the effects of migration experience on cumulative fertility are negligible and not statistically significant net of demographic and socioeconomic variables. Interpretations of the results are offered in the context of Angola and their broader implications are reflected on.