Prediction of Survival After 48-h of Intensive Care Following Open Surgical Repair of Ruptured Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm

To identify predictive factors for 30-day mortality after 48 h of maximal treatment in intensive care unit (ICU) after repair for ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm (RAAA). Retrospective study in the ICU of the university central hospital. Between 1999 and 2003, a total of 197 patients were admitted to emergency unit due to RAAA, and 185 of them underwent open surgical repair. A total of 138 patients survived at least 48-h and were included in a study to identify factors predictive of 30-day mortality by logistic regression analysis. Thirty-day mortality of all RAAA patients was 46% (87/197) whereas the 30-day mortality for those alive at 48 h was 22% (31/138). Forward stepwise multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that only organ dysfunction by SOFA score (sequential organ failure assessment) at 48-h, preoperative Glasgow Aneurysm Score, and supra-renal clamping in operation were independent predictors of death. Degree of organ dysfunction by SOFA score was the best predictor of 30-day mortality in RAAA patients alive at 48-h after open surgical repair.