Optimization and risk analyses for rule curves of reservoir operation: application to Tien-Hua-Hu Reservoir in Taiwan

Tien-Hua-Hu Reservoir is currently under planning by the Water Resources Agency, Taiwan to meet the increasing water demands of central Taiwan arising from rapid growth of domestic water supply, and high-tech industrial parks. This study develops a simulation model for the ten-day period reservoir operation to calculate the ten-day water shortage index under varying rule curves. A genetic algorithm is coupled to the simulation model to find the optimal rule curves using the minimum ten-day water shortage index as an objective function. This study generates many sets of synthetic streamflows for risk, reliability, resiliency, and vulnerability analyses of reservoir operation. ARMA and disaggregation models are developed and applied to the synthetic streamflow generation. The optimal rule curves obtained from this study perform better in the ten-day shortage index when compared to the originally designed rule curves from a previous study. The optimal rule curves are also superior to the originally designed rule curves in terms of vulnerability. However, in terms of reliability and resiliency, the optimal rule curves are inferior to the those originally designed. Results from this study have provided in general a set of improved rule curves for operation of the Tien-Hua-Hu Reservoir. Furthermore, results from reliability, resiliency and vulnerability analyses offer much useful information for decision making in reservoir operation.