Postoperative lactate concentrations predict the outcome of infants aged 6 weeks or less after intracardiac surgery: A cohort follow-up to 18 months

An observational cohort study was conducted in infants less than 6 weeks of age undergoing intracardiac surgery to examine the predictive value of serial postoperative lactate determination on survival and early childhood neurodevelopment. A total of 85 infants with congenital heart disease underwent intracardiac surgery between 1996 and 1999. Differences in serial lactate concentrations after surgery among 3 outcome groups were compared. The predictive value of plasma lactate concentration on outcome (1) at discharge from initial hospitalization and (2) 18 to 24 months postnatal age was examined. Compared with survivors, the nonsurvivors had higher lactate concentrations on admission to the pediatric intensive care unit at day 1 peak and area under the curve of the lactate profile than those of adverse and intact survivors (all P < .001, analysis of variance). Significant differences in the time for lactate concentrations to return to 2 mmol/L or less during the first postoperative day were observed among the groups: nonsurvivors > adverse survivors > intact survivors. Lactate concentrations of less than 7 mmol/L on admission or less than 8 mmol/L at day 1 peak predicted survival with 82% sensitivity and 83% specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of 97% and 43%, respectively ( P < .001, χ 2). Plasma lactate concentrations were associated with adverse outcome but had lower predictive values compared with that for nonsurvival. Serial lactate determination accurately predicts survival and may help differentiate survivors with adverse outcome from those with intact neurodevelopment in early childhood.