The use of a Monte Carlo method for uncertainty calculation, with an application to the measurement of neutron ambient dose equivalent rate

This paper is concerned with the use of a Monte Carlo method for uncertainty calculation as an implementation of the propagation of distributions. It reviews the basic principles of the propagation of distributions and numerical aspects of a Monte Carlo implementation. It also discusses the possible advantages in some circumstances of the propagation of distributions over the GUM uncertainty framework, and how the results obtained in any particular instance can be compared with those provided by that framework. To illustrate these various aspects, an application to the measurement of neutron dose equivalent rate is given. A key consideration in this application is the manner in which the dominant source of uncertainty, namely that associated with the field-specific correction factor, is treated. The information available concerning this factor constitutes the correction factors for a set of fields of the same type as that in which a measurement is being made. This information is encoded as a probability density function (PDF) for the correction factor. This PDF constitutes an input to both methods of evaluation.