Prediction of Postoperative Mortality in Elderly Patients With Colorectal Cancer

Prediction of Postoperative Mortality in Elderly Patients With Colorectal Cancer

PURPOSE: METHODS: RESULTS:A total of 2,533 patients satisfied the inclusion criteria, with a 30-day mortality of 15.6 percent. Multivariate analysis identified the following independent risk factorsage (odds ratio for 85-90, 90-95, >95 vs. 80-85 = 1.1, 1.8, 2.9), American Society of Anesthesiolog...

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Veröffentlicht in:Diseases of the colon & rectum 2006-06, Vol.49 (6), p.816-824
Hauptverfasser: Heriot, Alexander G, Tekkis, Paris P, Smith, Jason J, Cohen, C Richard G, Montgomery, Andrew, Audisio, Riccardo A, Thompson, Michael R, Stamatakis, Jeffrey D
Format: Artikel
Sprache:eng
Schlagworte:
Age Factors
Aged, 80 and over
Biological and medical sciences
Colorectal cancer
Colorectal Neoplasms - mortality
Colorectal Neoplasms - pathology
Colorectal Neoplasms - surgery
Digestive System Surgical Procedures - mortality
Female
Gastroenterology. Liver. Pancreas. Abdomen
Hospital Mortality
Humans
Male
Medical sciences
Models, Statistical
Regression Analysis
Risk Factors
Stomach. Duodenum. Small intestine. Colon. Rectum. Anus
Treatment Outcome
Tumors
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Zusammenfassung:PURPOSE: METHODS: RESULTS:A total of 2,533 patients satisfied the inclusion criteria, with a 30-day mortality of 15.6 percent. Multivariate analysis identified the following independent risk factorsage (odds ratio for 85-90, 90-95, >95 vs. 80-85 = 1.1, 1.8, 2.9), American Society of Anesthesiology grade (odds ratio for Grade III, IV vs. I-II = 2.7, 6.1), operative urgency (odds ratio for emergency vs. elective = 1.9), no cancer excision vs. resection (odds ratio = 1.2), and metastatic disease (odds ratio for metastases vs. no metastases = 1.9). The model offered adequate discrimination (area under receiver operator curve = 0.732) and excellent agreement between observed and predicted outcomes during eight colorectal procedures (P = 0.885). CONCLUSIONS:
ISSN:0012-3706
1530-0358
DOI:10.1007/s10350-006-0523-4