Long-term Prognostic Value of Transesophageal Atrial Pacing Stress Echocardiography

The aim of our study was to evaluate the long-term prognostic value of transesophageal atrial pacing stress echocardiography (TAPSE) for the prediction of cardiovascular events (myocardial infarction) and mortality at 10-year follow-up. TAPSE was applied as a diagnostic modality in 93 consecutive patients (mean age 45 ± 8 years) who were diagnosed for the cause of chest pain. Long-term follow-up data were obtained from 87 (94%) patients with a mean duration of follow-up of 92 ± 4 months. Stress echocardiography was performed using TAPSE with a mean pacing rate of 142 ± 18/min. Predefined cardiac events occurred during the follow-up period in 45 (52%) patients, including 24 (28%) with hard end points: 10 (12%) with nonfatal myocardial infarction and 17 who died (events overlap). Positive result of TAPSE was found in 47 (54%) patients and among those with positive TAPSE result, 16 died (94% of total mortality) and 21 had a hard event (death or infarction–88% of total prevalence). Survival free from hard events was noted in 37 (92%) patients with negative TAPSE and only in 26 (55%) of those with positive TAPSE ( P = .001). Independent predictive factors for mortality were TAPSE positivity (relative risk with 95% confidence interval [RR/CI] = 39.6 [36.3–42.9], P = .0006) and diabetes (RR/CI = 10.2 [8.6–11.8], P = .0026). Independent predictive factors for myocardial infarction were diabetes (RR/CI = 8.1 [6.3–9.9], P = .0186) and significant coronary stenosis in angiography (RR/CI = 9.0 [6.8–11.2], P = .0479). Independent predictive factors for death or nonfatal myocardial infarction were TAPSE positivity (RR/CI = 12.3 [11.1–13.3], P = .0001) and diabetes (RR/CI = 7.0 [5.8–8.2], P = .0018). Positive TAPSE result carries long-term prognostic information regarding mortality and risk of myocardial infarction that can be used to identify patients requiring more aggressive treatment. Negative TAPSE allows highly accurate definition of low-risk population with discriminating power maintained during the 10-year period. TAPSE result and diabetes are the strongest independent predictors for long-term mortality in multivariate analysis.