Low width of tubular bones is associated with increased risk of fragility fracture in elderly men—the MINOS study

The risk of fragility fractures in elderly men is only partly explained by areal bone mineral density (aBMD) measured by dual X-ray absorptiometry (DXA). Several studies suggest the importance of bone morphology for the risk of fracture. The aim of this study was to assess the value of bone size and estimated structural parameters for the prediction of incident fractures in a large cohort of men. This study was made in 759 men aged 50–85 from the MINOS cohort. During a 90-month follow-up, 74 men sustained incident vertebral and peripheral fractures. Areal BMD was measured by DXA at femoral neck, distal radius and distal ulna. Estimates of structural bone parameters and volumetric BMD (vBMD) were derived from aBMD measured by DXA. Given the limited number of fractures, the predictive value of investigated parameters was assessed for peripheral and vertebral fractures jointly by using logistic regression. Men who sustained the fractures had, at baseline, lower aBMD (3.5–6.5%), lower bone mineral content (BMC 5.4–8.7%) and lower cortical thickness (3.5–6.9%) compared with the men without fracture. At all the three skeletal sites, aBMD, BMC, width, cortical area and thickness, cross-sectional moment of inertia (CSMI), and section modulus predicted incident fractures (O.R. = 1.28–1.92 per 1 SD decrease, P