Prospective cohort study comparing sequential organ failure assessment and acute physiology, age, chronic health evaluation III scoring systems for hospital mortality prediction in critically ill cirrhotic patients

Summary The aim of the study was to evaluate the usefulness of sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) and acute physiology, age, chronic health evaluation III (APACHE III) scoring systems obtained on the first day of intensive care unit (ICU) admission in predicting hospital mortality in critica...

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Veröffentlicht in:International journal of clinical practice (Esher) 2006-02, Vol.60 (2), p.160-166
Hauptverfasser: Chen, Y-C, Tian, Y-C, Liu, N-J, Ho, Y-P, Yang, C., Chu, Y-Y, Chen, P-C, Fang, J-T, Hsu, C-W, Yang, C-W, Tsai, M-H
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container_title International journal of clinical practice (Esher)
container_volume 60
creator Chen, Y-C
Tian, Y-C
Liu, N-J
Ho, Y-P
Yang, C.
Chu, Y-Y
Chen, P-C
Fang, J-T
Hsu, C-W
Yang, C-W
Tsai, M-H
description Summary The aim of the study was to evaluate the usefulness of sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) and acute physiology, age, chronic health evaluation III (APACHE III) scoring systems obtained on the first day of intensive care unit (ICU) admission in predicting hospital mortality in critically ill cirrhotic patients. The study enrolled 102 cirrhotic patients consecutively admitted to ICU during a 1‐year period. Twenty‐five demographic, clinical and laboratory variables were analysed as predicators of survival. Information considered necessary to calculate the Child–Pugh, SOFA and APACHE III scores on the first day of ICU admission was also gathered. Overall hospital mortality was 68.6%. Multiple logistic regression analysis revealed that mean arterial pressure, SOFA and APACHE III scores were significantly related to prognosis. Goodness‐of‐fit was good for the SOFA and APACHE III models. Both predictive models displayed a similar degree of the best Youden index (0.68) and overall correctness (84%) of prediction. The SOFA and APACHE III models displayed good areas under the receiver–operating characteristic curve (0.917 ± 0.028 and 0.912 ± 0.029, respectively). Finally, a strong and significant positive correlation exists between SOFA and APACHE III scores for individual patients (r2 = 0.628, p 
doi_str_mv 10.1111/j.1742-1241.2005.00634.x
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The study enrolled 102 cirrhotic patients consecutively admitted to ICU during a 1‐year period. Twenty‐five demographic, clinical and laboratory variables were analysed as predicators of survival. Information considered necessary to calculate the Child–Pugh, SOFA and APACHE III scores on the first day of ICU admission was also gathered. Overall hospital mortality was 68.6%. Multiple logistic regression analysis revealed that mean arterial pressure, SOFA and APACHE III scores were significantly related to prognosis. Goodness‐of‐fit was good for the SOFA and APACHE III models. Both predictive models displayed a similar degree of the best Youden index (0.68) and overall correctness (84%) of prediction. The SOFA and APACHE III models displayed good areas under the receiver–operating characteristic curve (0.917 ± 0.028 and 0.912 ± 0.029, respectively). Finally, a strong and significant positive correlation exists between SOFA and APACHE III scores for individual patients (r2 = 0.628, p &lt; 0.001). This investigation confirms the grave prognosis for cirrhotic patients admitted to ICU. Both SOFA and APACHE III scores are excellent tools to predict the hospital mortality in critically ill cirrhotic patients. The overall predictive accuracy of SOFA and APACHE III is superior to that of Child–Pugh system. The role of these scoring systems in describing the dynamic aspects of clinical courses and allocating ICU resources needs to be clarified.</description><identifier>ISSN: 1368-5031</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1742-1241</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1111/j.1742-1241.2005.00634.x</identifier><identifier>PMID: 16451287</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Oxford, UK; Malden, USA: Blackwell Science Ltd</publisher><subject>APACHE ; APACHE III ; Biological and medical sciences ; Child-Pugh ; Cirrhosis ; Critical Care ; Critical Illness ; Epidemiologic Methods ; Female ; General aspects ; Hospital Mortality ; Humans ; ICU ; Length of Stay ; Liver Cirrhosis - mortality ; Male ; Medical sciences ; Middle Aged ; Miscellaneous ; Multiple Organ Failure - mortality ; Prospective Studies ; Public health. Hygiene ; Public health. 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The study enrolled 102 cirrhotic patients consecutively admitted to ICU during a 1‐year period. Twenty‐five demographic, clinical and laboratory variables were analysed as predicators of survival. Information considered necessary to calculate the Child–Pugh, SOFA and APACHE III scores on the first day of ICU admission was also gathered. Overall hospital mortality was 68.6%. Multiple logistic regression analysis revealed that mean arterial pressure, SOFA and APACHE III scores were significantly related to prognosis. Goodness‐of‐fit was good for the SOFA and APACHE III models. Both predictive models displayed a similar degree of the best Youden index (0.68) and overall correctness (84%) of prediction. The SOFA and APACHE III models displayed good areas under the receiver–operating characteristic curve (0.917 ± 0.028 and 0.912 ± 0.029, respectively). Finally, a strong and significant positive correlation exists between SOFA and APACHE III scores for individual patients (r2 = 0.628, p &lt; 0.001). This investigation confirms the grave prognosis for cirrhotic patients admitted to ICU. Both SOFA and APACHE III scores are excellent tools to predict the hospital mortality in critically ill cirrhotic patients. The overall predictive accuracy of SOFA and APACHE III is superior to that of Child–Pugh system. The role of these scoring systems in describing the dynamic aspects of clinical courses and allocating ICU resources needs to be clarified.</description><subject>APACHE</subject><subject>APACHE III</subject><subject>Biological and medical sciences</subject><subject>Child-Pugh</subject><subject>Cirrhosis</subject><subject>Critical Care</subject><subject>Critical Illness</subject><subject>Epidemiologic Methods</subject><subject>Female</subject><subject>General aspects</subject><subject>Hospital Mortality</subject><subject>Humans</subject><subject>ICU</subject><subject>Length of Stay</subject><subject>Liver Cirrhosis - mortality</subject><subject>Male</subject><subject>Medical sciences</subject><subject>Middle Aged</subject><subject>Miscellaneous</subject><subject>Multiple Organ Failure - mortality</subject><subject>Prospective Studies</subject><subject>Public health. Hygiene</subject><subject>Public health. 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Hygiene</topic><topic>Public health. Hygiene-occupational medicine</topic><topic>SOFA</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Chen, Y-C</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Tian, Y-C</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Liu, N-J</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Ho, Y-P</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Yang, C.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Chu, Y-Y</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Chen, P-C</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Fang, J-T</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Hsu, C-W</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Yang, C-W</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Tsai, M-H</creatorcontrib><collection>Istex</collection><collection>Pascal-Francis</collection><collection>Medline</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>MEDLINE (Ovid)</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>PubMed</collection><collection>MEDLINE - Academic</collection><jtitle>International journal of clinical practice (Esher)</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Chen, Y-C</au><au>Tian, Y-C</au><au>Liu, N-J</au><au>Ho, Y-P</au><au>Yang, C.</au><au>Chu, Y-Y</au><au>Chen, P-C</au><au>Fang, J-T</au><au>Hsu, C-W</au><au>Yang, C-W</au><au>Tsai, M-H</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Prospective cohort study comparing sequential organ failure assessment and acute physiology, age, chronic health evaluation III scoring systems for hospital mortality prediction in critically ill cirrhotic patients</atitle><jtitle>International journal of clinical practice (Esher)</jtitle><addtitle>Int J Clin Pract</addtitle><date>2006-02</date><risdate>2006</risdate><volume>60</volume><issue>2</issue><spage>160</spage><epage>166</epage><pages>160-166</pages><issn>1368-5031</issn><eissn>1742-1241</eissn><abstract>Summary The aim of the study was to evaluate the usefulness of sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) and acute physiology, age, chronic health evaluation III (APACHE III) scoring systems obtained on the first day of intensive care unit (ICU) admission in predicting hospital mortality in critically ill cirrhotic patients. The study enrolled 102 cirrhotic patients consecutively admitted to ICU during a 1‐year period. Twenty‐five demographic, clinical and laboratory variables were analysed as predicators of survival. Information considered necessary to calculate the Child–Pugh, SOFA and APACHE III scores on the first day of ICU admission was also gathered. Overall hospital mortality was 68.6%. Multiple logistic regression analysis revealed that mean arterial pressure, SOFA and APACHE III scores were significantly related to prognosis. Goodness‐of‐fit was good for the SOFA and APACHE III models. Both predictive models displayed a similar degree of the best Youden index (0.68) and overall correctness (84%) of prediction. The SOFA and APACHE III models displayed good areas under the receiver–operating characteristic curve (0.917 ± 0.028 and 0.912 ± 0.029, respectively). Finally, a strong and significant positive correlation exists between SOFA and APACHE III scores for individual patients (r2 = 0.628, p &lt; 0.001). This investigation confirms the grave prognosis for cirrhotic patients admitted to ICU. Both SOFA and APACHE III scores are excellent tools to predict the hospital mortality in critically ill cirrhotic patients. The overall predictive accuracy of SOFA and APACHE III is superior to that of Child–Pugh system. The role of these scoring systems in describing the dynamic aspects of clinical courses and allocating ICU resources needs to be clarified.</abstract><cop>Oxford, UK; Malden, USA</cop><pub>Blackwell Science Ltd</pub><pmid>16451287</pmid><doi>10.1111/j.1742-1241.2005.00634.x</doi><tpages>7</tpages><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record>
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source MEDLINE; Wiley Online Library Journals Frontfile Complete
subjects APACHE
APACHE III
Biological and medical sciences
Child-Pugh
Cirrhosis
Critical Care
Critical Illness
Epidemiologic Methods
Female
General aspects
Hospital Mortality
Humans
ICU
Length of Stay
Liver Cirrhosis - mortality
Male
Medical sciences
Middle Aged
Miscellaneous
Multiple Organ Failure - mortality
Prospective Studies
Public health. Hygiene
Public health. Hygiene-occupational medicine
SOFA
title Prospective cohort study comparing sequential organ failure assessment and acute physiology, age, chronic health evaluation III scoring systems for hospital mortality prediction in critically ill cirrhotic patients
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