Prospective cohort study comparing sequential organ failure assessment and acute physiology, age, chronic health evaluation III scoring systems for hospital mortality prediction in critically ill cirrhotic patients

Summary The aim of the study was to evaluate the usefulness of sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) and acute physiology, age, chronic health evaluation III (APACHE III) scoring systems obtained on the first day of intensive care unit (ICU) admission in predicting hospital mortality in critically ill cirrhotic patients. The study enrolled 102 cirrhotic patients consecutively admitted to ICU during a 1‐year period. Twenty‐five demographic, clinical and laboratory variables were analysed as predicators of survival. Information considered necessary to calculate the Child–Pugh, SOFA and APACHE III scores on the first day of ICU admission was also gathered. Overall hospital mortality was 68.6%. Multiple logistic regression analysis revealed that mean arterial pressure, SOFA and APACHE III scores were significantly related to prognosis. Goodness‐of‐fit was good for the SOFA and APACHE III models. Both predictive models displayed a similar degree of the best Youden index (0.68) and overall correctness (84%) of prediction. The SOFA and APACHE III models displayed good areas under the receiver–operating characteristic curve (0.917 ± 0.028 and 0.912 ± 0.029, respectively). Finally, a strong and significant positive correlation exists between SOFA and APACHE III scores for individual patients (r2 = 0.628, p