Why Do Neonates Die in Rural Gadchiroli, India? (Part II): Estimating Population Attributable Risks and Contribution of Multiple Morbidities for Identifying a Strategy to Prevent Deaths

OBJECTIVES: The understanding about why neonates die in rural areas in developing countries is limited. In the first year (1995 to 1996) of the field trial of home-based neonatal care in rural Gadchiroli, India, we prospectively observed a cohort of neonates in 39 villages. In Part I of this article, we presented the primary causes of death. The data were further analyzed: To estimate the population attributable risk (PAR) of death for the main causes of neonatal mortality. To evaluate the effect of a multiplicity of morbidities and to identify which morbidity combinations cause neonatal deaths. To develop a hypothesis about how best to reduce neonatal mortality. STUDY DESIGN: We analyzed the observational data by logistic regression to estimate the PAR of death for six major morbidities. The effect of the number of morbidities per neonate on case fatality (CF) was estimated. Then we identified the main combinations of morbidities as the component causes leading to death. We estimated the excess deaths attributable to sepsis. RESULTS: This cohort included 763 neonates among whom 40 neonatal deaths occurred. Six major morbidities were associated with the following proportion of deaths: preterm, 62.5%; sepsis, 60%; intrauterine growth restriction (IUGR), 27.5%; asphyxia, 25%; hypothermia, 22.5%, and feeding problems, 15%. The estimated PARs were: preterm, 0.74; IUGR, 0.55; sepsis, 0.55; asphyxia, 0.35; hypothermia, 0.08, and feeding problems, 0.04. The CF associated with the number of morbidities per neonate was: with no morbidity, 0.3%; one morbidity, 2.1%; two morbidities, 15.3%; three or more morbidities, 41.4% ( p