Prognosis after local recurrence after conservative surgery and radiation for early-stage breast cancer

To determine the long-term prognosis of patients who develop a local recurrence (LR) after conservative surgery (CS) and radiation therapy (RT) for early-stage invasive breast cancer. Between 1970 and 1987, 2102 patients with clinical Stage I-II breast cancer were treated with CS+RT. LR was defined as any recurrence within the ipsilateral breast with or without simultaneous regional nodal or distant metastasis. Patients were at risk for a LR until the first of distant metastases, second nonbreast malignancy, or death (DF/S/D). The final study population comprised 341 patients with LR. The median time to LR was 72 months. The median follow-up time after LR was 85 months. A proportional hazards model of time from LR to DF/S/D was done to investigate the influence of factors at initial diagnosis and at LR on subsequent outcome. The actuarial freedom from DF/S/D 5 years after LR was 65% and the survival was 81%. Variables significantly associated with time to DF/S/D were: LR histology (invasive vs. ductal carcinoma in situ, hazard ratio [HR] = 4.1, p < 0.0001); local therapy for LR (none vs. mastectomy or unknown, HR = 3.2, p < 0.0001; and CS ± RT vs. mastectomy or unknown, HR = 2.0, p = 0.02); time to LR (≤2 years vs. >5 years, HR = 2.6, p < 0.0001; and 2–5 years vs. >5 years, HR = 1.8, p = 0.006); and age at initial diagnosis (≥60 vs.