Baseline characteristics and early on-treatment response predict the outcomes of 2 years of telbivudine treatment of chronic hepatitis B

Background/Aims In the GLOBE trial, telbivudine treatment was identified as a significant, independent predictor of better outcomes at 2 years. We analyzed all telbivudine recipients in this trial to determine the predictors of optimal outcomes. Methods The intent-to-treat population comprised 458 HBeAg-positive and 222 HBeAg-negative telbivudine-treated patients. Multivariate logistic regression analyses were employed to evaluate baseline and/or early on-treatment variables. Results Baseline HBV DNA < 9 log10 copies/mL, or ALT levels ⩾2× above normal were strong pretreatment predictors for HBeAg-positive, but not for HBeAg-negative patients. However, non-detectable serum HBV DNA at treatment week 24 (TW24) was the strongest predictor for better outcomes for both groups. A combination of pretreatment characteristics plus TW24 response identified subgroups with the best outcomes: (1) HBeAg-positive patients with baseline HBV DNA < 9 log10 copies/mL, ALT ⩾ 2× above normal and non-detectable HBV DNA at TW24 achieved at 2 years: non-detectable HBV DNA in 89%, HBeAg seroconversion in 52%, telbivudine resistance in 1.8%; and (2) HBeAg-negative patients with baseline HBV DNA < 7 log10 copies/mL and non-detectable serum HBV DNA at TW24 achieved at 2 years: non-detectable HBV DNA in 91%, telbivudine resistance in 2.3%. Conclusion During telbivudine treatment, non-detectable serum HBV DNA at treatment week 24 is the strongest predictor for optimal outcomes at 2 years.