MRI bone oedema is the strongest predictor of subsequent radiographic progression in early rheumatoid arthritis. Results from a 2-year randomised controlled trial (CIMESTRA)

Objective:To identify predictors of radiographic progression in a 2-year randomised, double-blind, clinical study (CIMESTRA) of patients with early rheumatoid arthritis (RA).Methods:Patients with early RA (n = 130) were treated with methotrexate, intra-articular betamethasone and ciclosporin/placebo-ciclosporin. Baseline magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) of the wrist (wrist-only group, n = 130) or MRI of wrist and metacarpophalangeal (MCP) joints (wrist+MCP group, n = 89) (OMERACT RAMRIS), x-ray examination of hands, wrists and forefeet (Sharp/van der Heijde Score (TSS)), Disease Activity Score (DAS28), anti-cyclic citrullinated peptide antibodies (anti-CCP), HLA-DRB1-shared epitope (SE) and smoking status were assessed. Multiple regression analysis was performed with delta-TSS (0–2 years) as dependent variable and baseline DAS28, TSS, MRI bone oedema score, MRI synovitis score, MRI erosion score, anti-CCP, smoking, SE, age and gender as explanatory variables.Results:Baseline values: median DAS28 5.6 (range 2.4–8.0); anti-CCP positive 61%; radiographic erosions 56%. At 2 years: DAS28 2.0 (0.5–5.7), in DAS remission: 56%, radiographic progression 26% (wrist+MCP group, similar for wrist-only group). MRI bone oedema score was the only independent predictor of delta-TSS (wrist+MCP group: coefficient = 0.75 (95% CI 0.55 to 0.94), p