An Evaluation of the Pearsonian Type I Curve of Fertility for Aboriginal Populations in Canada, 1996 to 2001

In 2005, Statistics Canada published new projections of the Aboriginal populations (North American Indians, Métis, and Inuit) in Canada, the provinces and territories from 2001 to 2017. To derive the number of births in these projections, the age-specific fertility rates were simulated by fitting the Pearsonian Type I curve using the projected fertility parameters: total fertility rates, mean ages of fertility, and modal ages of fertility. For the base period 1996 to 2001, the parameters were estimated from the age-specific fertility rates derived from the 2001 Census, using the “own-children method.” This paper evaluates the goodness of fit between the age-specific fertility rates developed by the Type I curve and the estimated age-specific fertility rates for Aboriginal identity groups for the period 1996 to 2001 for Canada and for high and low fertility regions. Tests of validity of the Type I curve indicate that this method is appropriate for estimating/projecting the number of births for the Aboriginal populations.