Scientific Progress, Educated Guesses or Speculation? On Some Old Predictions with Respect to Electoral Behaviour in the Netherlands

In 1989 we made several predictions about future electoral change in the Netherlands. In this special issue on Dutch politics, we attempt to evaluate whether our predictions have been correct. We find that indeed religion and class have continued to lose importance and now are not useful for understanding voting behaviour. The heartland model based on an ideological issue space is changing in importance, as all the heartlands turn into mini-battlefields. Moreover, issues related to immigration may have become a new dimension in Dutch politics. How the government has handled the economy is shown to have been important in some elections, but not in others. The prediction that future campaigns would focus more on candidates receives some support, although it remains a major challenge to determine how candidates affect voters. We conclude by venturing some new predictions for the next 20 years.