Moving from a Decennial Census to a Continuous Measurement Survey: Factors Affecting Nonresponse at the Neighborhood Level

The Census Bureau is testing a continuous measurement program, known as the American Community Survey (ACS), which will provide census "long form" data annually, though with slightly higher levels of sampling variability. This paper focuses on the 1999-2001 ACS in the Bronx, 1 of 31 ACS test sites. It examines whether the quality of ACS data in the Bronx varies across neighborhoods, focusing specifically on how neighborhood sociodemographic factors influence nonresponse, as measured by mail return and allocation rates. It also examines whether these neighborhood factors have a differential impact on nonresponse in the ACS and the 2000 decennial census, and discusses reasons why this may be so. The ACS mail return rates are not only lower than those of the census, but are highly sensitive to race and socioeconomic distress. Despite this initial disadvantage, the ACS has lower levels of allocation on key variables, relative to the 2000 Census. Moreover, the effect of neighborhood socioeconomic distress on allocation rates in the ACS was minimal, compared to its effect on census allocation. We find that the overall quality of ACS data in the Bronx is superior to that of the decennial census. Our analysis of Bronx data suggests that the proposed elimination of the decennial long form and its replacement with the ACS is a reasonable tradeoff for users of small area data.