Prospects and Programs for Fertility Reduction: What? Where?

What are the prospects that 29 large developing countries, including 85 percent of the population of the developing world, will achieve a crude birth rate of 20 by the year 2000; and what policy interventions are available or needed to maximize that probability or minimize the shortfall? In addressing those questions, this article classifies the countries into four categories according to their chances of realizing the stipulated target: The Certain, The Probable, The Possible, and The Unlikely. The article then reviews the programmatic options apparently available to policy and considers how far the various countries would have to move on basic and/or proximate determinants to meet the target.