Mexico's recent balance-of-payments experience and prospects for growth

An analysis of Mexico's balance-of-payments experience during 1973-1982, focusing on external shocks, accumulated foreign debt, & domestic policy actions. Prospects for growth are examined by means of a simulation model. Among the findings are that internal factors were more important in the deterioration of the current account than external factors from 1972 to 1976. A macroeconomic stabilization program in 1976 led to a reduction in the current account deficit by 1977. A period of economic growth & rising import coefficients during 1978 ended in 1981 when real oil prices declined & capital flight increased. The success of adjustments made in 1983/84 is predicted to hinge on both external & internal events, with the stability of external finance playing an important role. 14 Tables, 3 Figures, 1 Appendix, 15 References. K. Carande