A Note on Portraying the Accuracy of Violence Predictions

A Note on Portraying the Accuracy of Violence Predictions

We discuss two major reviews of the accuracy of dichotomous (yes/no) violence predictions (Monahan, 1981; Otto, 1992), which reported rates of false positive errors that were calculated using conceptually and mathematically dissimilar methods. We outline potential problems that result from analyzing...

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Veröffentlicht in:Law and human behavior 1993-12, Vol.17 (6), p.695-700
Hauptverfasser: Hart, Stephen D, Webster, Christopher D, Menzies, Robert J
Format: Artikel
Sprache:eng
Schlagworte:
Accuracy
Base interest rates
Clinical Judgment (Not Diagnosis)
Dangerousness
False negative errors
False positive errors
Forensic psychiatry
Forensic Psychology
Human
Human behavior
Mental Health Personnel
Mental illness
Methodology (Data Analysis)
Outcome variables
Prediction
Recommendations
Research Note
Statistics
Violence
Violent crimes
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Beschreibung
Zusammenfassung:We discuss two major reviews of the accuracy of dichotomous (yes/no) violence predictions (Monahan, 1981; Otto, 1992), which reported rates of false positive errors that were calculated using conceptually and mathematically dissimilar methods. We outline potential problems that result from analyzing data in the form of 2 × 2 contingency tables and offer some recommendations for future research on the prediction of violence.
ISSN:0147-7307
1573-661X
DOI:10.1007/BF01044690