MANAGING RAPE: EXPLORATORY RESEARCH ON THE BEHAVIOR OF RAPE STATISTICS

This article explores interpretations of the UCR‐NCS disparity in rape rates within the context of recent debates and research about the UCR‐NCS relationship. Analysis of a variety of survey, organizational, and employee data together with UCR and NCS crime data yields a pattern of findings that makes sense if two assumptions are made: Downward trends in NCS data are an approximation of trends in the real rate of rape, and upward trends in UCR data are primarily a product of changes in the management of rape cases. The common attribution of disparities between UCR and NCS rape data to changes in public or victim reporting receives little support when compared with explanations stressing organizational change. Upward movement in official attention to rape could, in fact, account for downward movement in NCS rape rates. The implications of recent NCS efforts to improve the official measurement of rape for the future behavior of rape statistics are also considered.