Why Incumbents Are Treated So Harshly: Term Limits for State Legislators

In this research, we seek to explain state-to-state variation in how harshly term limits treat incumbent state legislators. Harshness is measured by how quickly and how permanently state limits remove incumbents from the legislature. Overall, there is considerable support for the contention that political structure influences how harshly states treat their incumbents. Much of the variation in the harshness of term limits may reflect the idiosyncrasies of leaders or small groups in the various ad hoc organizations that have pushed for limits in the different states. However, the impact of at least one contextual variable is significant: Variation in turnover rate accounts for 33% of the variance in harshness. In comparing states that have adopted term limits, the lower the existing turnover rate in the legislature, the harsher the term limits they tend to adopt.