When do base rates affect predictions?

M. Manis et al found that base rates had a clear effect on discrete predictions and a smaller effect on the confidence that Ss attached to those predictions. As a result, the findings of Manis et al can be reinterpreted in a way that makes them compatible with previous findings. In this light, their...

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Veröffentlicht in:	Journal of personality and social psychology 1981-10, Vol.41 (4), p.671-680
Hauptverfasser:	Bar-Hillel, Maya, Fischhoff, Baruch
Format:	Artikel
Sprache:	eng
Schlagworte:	EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN HEAVILY EMPHASIZES METHODOLOGY OR TECHNIQUE OF STUDY Human Prediction PREDICTION OF FUTURE EVENTS RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT Social Perception SUBJECTIVITY THEORY BUILDING OR THEORETICAL APPROACH
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