When do base rates affect predictions?

When do base rates affect predictions?

M. Manis et al found that base rates had a clear effect on discrete predictions and a smaller effect on the confidence that Ss attached to those predictions. As a result, the findings of Manis et al can be reinterpreted in a way that makes them compatible with previous findings. In this light, their...

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Veröffentlicht in:Journal of personality and social psychology 1981-10, Vol.41 (4), p.671-680
Hauptverfasser: Bar-Hillel, Maya, Fischhoff, Baruch
Format: Artikel
Sprache:eng
Schlagworte:
EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN
HEAVILY EMPHASIZES METHODOLOGY OR TECHNIQUE OF STUDY
Human
Prediction
PREDICTION OF FUTURE EVENTS
RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT
Social Perception
SUBJECTIVITY
THEORY BUILDING OR THEORETICAL APPROACH
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Zusammenfassung:M. Manis et al found that base rates had a clear effect on discrete predictions and a smaller effect on the confidence that Ss attached to those predictions. As a result, the findings of Manis et al can be reinterpreted in a way that makes them compatible with previous findings. In this light, their study emerges as a constructive replication of earlier results demonstrating judgment by representativeness. (15 ref)
ISSN:0022-3514
1939-1315
DOI:10.1037/0022-3514.41.4.671