When do base rates affect predictions?
M. Manis et al found that base rates had a clear effect on discrete predictions and a smaller effect on the confidence that Ss attached to those predictions. As a result, the findings of Manis et al can be reinterpreted in a way that makes them compatible with previous findings. In this light, their...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Journal of personality and social psychology 1981-10, Vol.41 (4), p.671-680 |
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| container_end_page | 680 |
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| container_issue | 4 |
| container_start_page | 671 |
| container_title | Journal of personality and social psychology |
| container_volume | 41 |
| creator | Bar-Hillel, Maya Fischhoff, Baruch |
| description | M. Manis et al found that base rates had a clear effect on discrete predictions and a smaller effect on the confidence that Ss attached to those predictions. As a result, the findings of Manis et al can be reinterpreted in a way that makes them compatible with previous findings. In this light, their study emerges as a constructive replication of earlier results demonstrating judgment by representativeness. (15 ref) |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1037/0022-3514.41.4.671 |
| format | Article |
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Manis et al found that base rates had a clear effect on discrete predictions and a smaller effect on the confidence that Ss attached to those predictions. As a result, the findings of Manis et al can be reinterpreted in a way that makes them compatible with previous findings. In this light, their study emerges as a constructive replication of earlier results demonstrating judgment by representativeness. (15 ref)</abstract><cop>Washington, D.C</cop><pub>American Psychological Association</pub><doi>10.1037/0022-3514.41.4.671</doi><tpages>10</tpages></addata></record> |
| fulltext | fulltext |
| identifier | ISSN: 0022-3514 |
| ispartof | Journal of personality and social psychology, 1981-10, Vol.41 (4), p.671-680 |
| issn | 0022-3514 1939-1315 |
| language | eng |
| recordid | cdi_proquest_miscellaneous_61266738 |
| source | Worldwide Political Science Abstracts; EBSCOhost APA PsycARTICLES; Periodicals Index Online |
| subjects | EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN HEAVILY EMPHASIZES METHODOLOGY OR TECHNIQUE OF STUDY Human Prediction PREDICTION OF FUTURE EVENTS RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT Social Perception SUBJECTIVITY THEORY BUILDING OR THEORETICAL APPROACH |
| title | When do base rates affect predictions? |
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