Using qualitative historical observations in predicting the future

Forecasting is generally undertaken using either a statistical forecasting econometric or a futurist approach. With the statistical forecasting approach, forecasts of future activity are generated on the basis of quantitative historical data; both input data and forecasts cover the short term. With the futurist approach, interpretations of historical data are made to predict events in the distant future, generally covering the impacts of technology on future society. Data used for futurist predictions rarely extend back more than 100 years. It is proposed that predictions of future human activity may be improved by accessing the wealth of qualitative historical observations that has accumulated over the past 3,000 years. Quantitative and futurist approaches have neglected this source of information because it has not been collected according to scientific criteria. However, when information from the distant past in comparison with present observations indicates consistencies in human behavior over time, it can be used to substantially enhance predictions of human behavior in the future.