Towards a Contingency Approach to Third Party Intervention in Regional Conflict: A Cyprus Illustration

THE AUTHORS DEVELOP A RATIONALE FOR A CONTINGENCY APPROACH TO THIRD PARTY INTERVENTION IN REGIONAL CONFLICTS. THEY INTRODUCE SELECTED SOCIAL-PSYCHOLOGICAL CONCEPTS AND PROCESSES RELEVANT TO CONFLICT ESCALATION AND RESOLUTION. BASED ON THIS, THEY DESCRIBE THIRD PARTY CONSULTATION--AN APPROACH TO CONFLICT RESOLUTION BASED ON THESE CONCEPTS--AND CONTRAST IT WITH THE MORE FAMILIAR INTERVENTION STRATEGY OF MEDIATION, WITH AN EYE TO EXPLORING THE POTENTIAL COMPATIBILITY OF THESE TWO STRATEGIES IN THE LONG-TERM RESOLUTION OF REGIONAL CONFLICTS. THEY ALSO EXAMINE POSSIBLE SEQUENCES OF INTERVENTION IN RELATION TO THE STAGES OF ESCALATION OF A CONFLICT, THUS LAYING THE GROUNDWORK FOR A CONTINGENCY MODEL OF THIRD PARTY INTERVENTION. THIS CONCEPTUAL ANALYSIS IS BRIEFLY ILLUSTRATED WITH REFERENCE TO THE CYPRUS CONFLICT, INCLUDING THE VARIOUS THIRD PARTY INTERVENTION EFFORTS.