The modelling of demographic-economic change within the context of regional decline: Analytical procedures and empirical results

This paper is concerned with the modelling of demographic-economic change within an input-output framework. Several different modes of such change are identified and iterative and simultaneous mechanisms representing their effects are explored in detail. Analytical methods are developed to measure the consequences of demographic-economic change: particular attention is paid to the problem of assessing the regional impact of transfer payments such as unemployment benefit and old age pensions. The application of these methods is demonstrated using a modelling framework constructed for the Merseyside metropolitan county in North West England.